韓國과 西獨間의 交通安全 比較

서지정보

ㆍ발행기관 : 대한교통학회 ㆍ수록지정보 : 대한교통학회지 / 5권 / 2호
ㆍ저자명 : 金鴻祥

목차

ABSTRACT
Ⅰ. 序論
Ⅱ. 重回歸分析에 의한 世界 交通事故 모델
Ⅲ. 時系列解釋에 의한 交通事故 發生變化에 관한 考察
Ⅳ. 韓國과 西獨間의 高速道路上에서의 運轉態度와 事故分析 統計
Ⅴ. 結論 및 앞으로의 眺望
參考文獻

한국어 초록

The work analyzes the existing situation and defines special problems concerning traffic accidents in the two countries. The report is divided into three parts:
1) Using the global approach of SMEED, the data were evaluated using multiple regression analysis, and homogeneous groups of countries were defined by cluster analysis. In the global approach, the linear model is better than SMEED's non-linear model in explaining the number of fatalities. Among the different groups of countries, the linear approach was found to be better suited for industrialized countries and the non-linear approach better for the developing countries. The comparison of traffic fatality data for the Federal Republic of Germany and the Republic of Korea showed different regression equations during the same time period.
2) The BOX/JENKINS time series analysis on a monthly basis points out clearly similar seasonal patterns for the two countries over the years studied. The decrease in traffic accidents following the intensification of the safety belt requirement was proved in the ARIMA model. It amounts to 7 to 8 percent fewer personal injury accidents and fatal accidents. The identified increase in safety in the Federal Republic of Germany since the 1970s is mainly due to the reduction of accident severity in residential areas.
3) Speeds and headways on motorways in the two countries were also compared. The measurements point out that German road users drive faster, take more risks, and accept shorter time gaps than Korean road users. However, the accident statistics show accident rates for Korea that are several times higher than those in the Federal Republic of Germany.

영어 초록

The work analyzes the existing situation and defines special problems concerning traffic accidents in the two countries. The report is divided into three parts: 1) Using the global approach of SMEED, the data were evaluated using multiple regression analysis, and homogeneous groups of countries were defined by cluster analysis. In the global approach, the linear model is better than SMEED's non-linear model in explaining the number of fatalities. Among the different groups of countries, the linear approach was found to be better suited for industrialized countries and the non-linear approach better for the developing countries. The comparison of traffic fatality data for the Federal Republic of Germany and the Republic of Korea showed different regression equations during the same time period. 2) The BOX/JENKINS time series analysis on a monthly basis points out clearly similar seasonal patterns for the two countries over the years studied. The decrease in traffic accidents following the intensification of the safety belt requirement was proved in the ARIMA model. It amounts to 7 to 8 percent fewer personal injury accidents and fatal accidents. The identified increase in safety in the Federal Republic of Germany since the 1970s is mainly due to the reduction of accident severity in residential areas. 3) Speeds and headways on motorways in the two countries were also compared. The measurements point out that German road users drive faster, take more risks, and accept shorter time gaps than Korean road users. However, the accident statistics show accident rates for Korea that are several times higher than those in the Federal Republic of Germany.

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